Quick commerce is not a sudden trend but a structural shift in the market, says Infisum founder and NITI Aayog Fellow Badri Narayan Gopalakrishnan
New Delhi : India’s e-commerce market is poised for rapid expansion over the next four years, with its overall size expected to nearly triple from around $125 billion in 2024 to $345 billion by 2030, according to a new report.
The report, titled “Smart Growth in a Fast Market,” has been prepared by research consultancy Infisum in collaboration with public-policy think tank Empower India. It examines the structural changes, competitive dynamics and policy developments expected to shape India’s digital-commerce market through the end of the decade.
Major E-Commerce Platforms Evaluated
The report assesses leading e-commerce and quick-commerce platforms, including Amazon, Flipkart, Blinkit, Zepto, Swiggy Instamart, Reliance’s JioMart, Tata Neu and Meesho, across various strategic parameters.
According to the report, quick commerce is increasingly moving beyond being treated as a separate market segment. Instead, the broader e-commerce landscape is being shaped by platforms that combine consumer trust, wider product selection and convenient delivery.
The shift reflects changing consumer expectations, with speed and convenience becoming increasingly important factors in online shopping decisions.
Quick Commerce Market Could Reach $65–70 Billion by 2030
Badri Narayan Gopalakrishnan, founder of Infisum and a NITI Aayog Fellow, said quick commerce should not be viewed as a temporary or sudden consumer trend.
According to him, it represents a structural and lasting change in the market.
The quick-commerce market is projected to reach approximately $65–70 billion by 2030, implying sustained annual growth of around 45–50% in the segment.
Gopalakrishnan said platforms such as Amazon Now and Flipkart Minutes have emerged as preferred options among consumers.
He further suggested that if Amazon Now succeeds in converting even 20–25% of Amazon’s existing customer base to its rapid-delivery services, its established consumer trust and service ecosystem could give it a significant competitive advantage.
Blinkit Leads Quick Commerce Market
Blinkit currently leads India’s quick-commerce sector, according to the report.
The platform is estimated to have handled around 900 million orders in FY2026, giving it approximately 44% market share.
It is followed by:
| Quick-Commerce Platform | Market Share |
|---|---|
| Blinkit | 44% |
| Zepto | 25% |
| Swiggy Instamart | 20% |
The figures indicate the highly competitive nature of India’s rapidly expanding quick-commerce industry, with major platforms competing on delivery speed, product assortment, geographic reach and customer experience.
E-Commerce Market to Grow at 18.4% CAGR
The report projects that India’s overall e-commerce market will expand at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 18.4% through 2030.
The growth is expected to be supported by several structural factors, including:
- Rising disposable incomes
- Expanding internet penetration
- Increasing digital payments
- Growing consumer adoption of online shopping
- Wider availability of digital commerce platforms
- Greater demand for convenience and faster delivery
These factors are expected to drive e-commerce deeper into India’s retail ecosystem.
E-Commerce Could Account for 10–12% of Retail Spending
By the end of the decade, e-commerce is projected to account for approximately 10–12% of total retail spending in India.
The sector’s contribution to the country’s GDP could reach around 2.5%, according to the report.
The number of online shoppers is also expected to rise substantially, reaching approximately 420–440 million consumers by 2030.
Competition Shifting Towards Consumer Experience
The report suggests that India’s e-commerce competition is increasingly moving beyond pricing and discounts.
Platforms are expected to compete more intensively on:
- Consumer trust
- Product selection
- Delivery speed
- Convenience
- Digital payment integration
- Customer experience
- Geographic reach
Quick commerce is also becoming integrated into the broader online retail ecosystem rather than operating solely as a standalone category.
Structural Transformation of India’s Retail Market
The projected growth of India’s e-commerce industry points to a broader transformation in the country’s retail economy.
With hundreds of millions of consumers expected to participate in digital commerce by 2030, online platforms are likely to play an increasingly important role in how Indians discover, purchase and receive products.
The rapid growth of quick commerce further demonstrates the shift in consumer expectations towards speed, convenience and on-demand delivery.
Overall, the report indicates that India’s e-commerce market is moving into a new phase of growth, driven not only by increasing internet and digital-payment adoption but also by fundamental changes in consumer behaviour and competitive strategies.
