Washington / Beijing / Caracas
Former U.S. President Donald Trump’s renewed push for American control over Venezuela’s vast oil reserves is colliding with a major global reality: Venezuela’s largest oil customer, China, is rapidly moving away from fossil fuels.
While the Trump administration has reportedly sought to reposition Venezuela’s oil industry under U.S. influence—following a recent American military operation and political pressure on Caracas—experts say the strategy may come too late. China, once heavily dependent on Venezuelan crude, is dramatically reducing its long-term oil demand as it races toward electric vehicles (EVs) and renewable energy.
China’s Waning Appetite for Oil
China has long been one of Venezuela’s biggest oil buyers, importing an estimated 400,000 to 500,000 barrels per day, according to energy research firm Rystad Energy. However, analysts now believe China is either at or near “peak oil”, meaning its overall oil consumption has stopped growing and is expected to decline.
The main reason is China’s extraordinary transformation of its transportation sector. In 2024 alone, more than 11 million of the 18.5 million electric vehicles sold globally were sold in China, according to UK-based research firm Rho Motion. Electric vehicles are now firmly embedded in China’s economy, unlike in the United States, where EV policies have fluctuated with political changes.
“This transition is decisive and irreversible,” said Li Shuo, Director of the China Climate Hub at the Asia Society Policy Institute. “China’s EV rollout has moved beyond experimentation—it is now the backbone of future mobility.”
U.S. Pressure on Venezuela
According to CNN reports, the Trump administration has told Venezuela’s interim leadership that continued access to U.S. support depends on cutting ties with China, Russia, Iran, and Cuba, and partnering exclusively with American companies for oil production. U.S. officials have openly stated that Washington intends to sell Venezuela’s oil on global markets.
China has strongly rejected this approach. In a statement to CNN, China’s Foreign Ministry said that cooperation between China and Venezuela is “legitimate and in line with the interests of both sides” and “not subject to third-party interference.”
China Has Other Options
Even if U.S. intervention disrupts Venezuelan oil flows, experts say China is unlikely to suffer major consequences. As the world’s largest oil importer, China can easily replace Venezuelan crude with discounted supplies from Russia and Iran, both of which are under Western sanctions.
“Any U.S. move against Venezuelan exports would be largely symbolic,” said Janiv Shah, Vice President of Commodity Markets at Rystad Energy. “Chinese refiners would simply pivot to other sanctioned barrels.”
In practical terms, this means Venezuela needs China far more than China needs Venezuela, analysts say.
Energy Transition Defines the Global Divide
China’s long-term strategy is clear: reduce dependence on foreign oil altogether. The country is aggressively expanding renewable energy capacity, currently building 510 gigawatts of solar and wind power, on top of 1,400 gigawatts already online, according to Global Energy Monitor. Beijing has pledged to reach 3,600 gigawatts of wind and solar capacity, six times its 2020 levels.
In addition, China is expanding nuclear power and investing heavily in fusion energy, a potential near-limitless clean energy source.
Experts argue that U.S. actions in Venezuela highlight a growing divide between the world’s two largest economies.
“China is racing toward the energy of the future,” said Li Shuo. “Meanwhile, the United States is doubling down on oil—using political and even military power to secure fossil fuels.”
Global Implications
As China’s domestic EV market becomes saturated, Chinese automakers such as BYD, now the world’s largest EV seller after overtaking Tesla, are expanding aggressively into global markets—particularly in the Global South.
This shift could reshape global energy demand, weaken oil-dependent economies, and further isolate countries that continue to rely heavily on fossil fuels.
“The U.S. approach reinforces the image of a petrostate strategy,” Shuo added. “It signals a step backward on the energy transition at a time when the world is moving forward.”
Conclusion
Trump’s ambition to control Venezuela’s oil may have once made strategic sense. But as China accelerates its clean energy revolution and reduces oil dependence, the geopolitical value of Venezuelan crude is steadily diminishing.
In the long run, energy experts say, the future belongs not to oil-rich nations—but to those that master renewable power, electric mobility, and energy independence.