Washington, D.C. — After weeks of uncertainty caused by a prolonged government shutdown, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) is set to release the long-delayed September nonfarm payrolls report on Thursday at 8:30 a.m. ET. The release will mark the first official snapshot of U.S. labor conditions since early September, offering long-awaited insight for economists, investors and Federal Reserve policymakers.
According to consensus forecasts, the September report is expected to show a gain of 50,000 jobs across public and private sectors. That would be an improvement from the initially reported 22,000 jobs added in August, though still reflective of a labor market losing momentum. Because the figures cover September, analysts caution that they offer a “rear-window” view of the economy and will provide limited help in assessing more recent labor disruptions tied to the shutdown.
Joseph Brusuelas, chief economist at RSM, said he expects the numbers—including revisions to July and August data—to paint a “slightly brighter” picture than previously assumed, though he emphasized that the improvement will be modest. “The labor market is holding in there, just like the economy,” he noted.
Economists also predict the unemployment rate will hold steady at 4.3%, while average hourly earnings are projected to rise 0.3% for the month and 3.7% year-over-year, matching August’s figures.
With the October report unlikely to be produced due to the government shutdown, some analysts warn that joblessness last month may have been higher. Goldman Sachs economists Ronnie Walker and Jessica Rindels said they would expect an October unemployment increase driven by furloughs and broader signs of labor market slack.
Thursday’s report will also include revisions for July and August, which many forecasters—including Brusuelas and Goldman Sachs—believe will show stronger job growth than earlier estimates suggested.
Despite the backward-looking nature of the data, Thursday’s release is expected to provide a crucial reference point for decision-makers who have been forced to rely on fragmented private-sector data during the government’s record-long shutdown.
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