Beijing:
China’s birth rate dropped to a historic low in 2025, highlighting a deepening demographic crisis that threatens to weigh on the world’s second-largest economy for decades, even as the country met its annual growth target despite ongoing trade tensions with the United States.
According to data released Monday by China’s National Bureau of Statistics, the birth rate fell to 5.63 births per 1,000 people in 2025, down from 6.39 in 2023. The decline suggests that the modest rise in births seen in 2024 was temporary, rather than a sign of long-term recovery after years of steady decline since 2016.
China recorded 7.92 million births last year, far fewer than the 11.31 million deaths, leading to a population decline of 3.39 million. This marks the fourth consecutive year of population contraction. China’s total population now stands at approximately 1.4 billion, second only to India.
Despite the demographic setback, China’s economy grew 5% in 2025, meeting the government’s target of “around 5%.” Growth was largely driven by strong exports, which offset weak domestic consumption and ongoing trade frictions with the US. China posted a record $1.2 trillion trade surplus, even as US President Donald Trump continued an on-and-off trade war with Beijing.
However, economic momentum slowed toward the end of the year. Fourth-quarter growth fell to 4.5%, the slowest quarterly expansion since late 2022.
Officials emphasized the economy’s resilience. Statistics bureau chief Kang Yi described the performance as “remarkably stable,” citing China’s ability to maintain steady growth despite “a complex and severe external environment and mounting domestic challenges.”
The plunging birth rate presents a major challenge for Beijing, which has been trying to reverse the long-term effects of the now-scrapped one-child policy. President Xi Jinping has stressed the importance of “population security” and the development of a “high-quality population,” while also promoting automation and robotics to offset a shrinking workforce.
In response, the government has introduced measures such as cash bonuses for families with children under three, easier marriage registration, and free public preschool programs. Local governments have also offered housing subsidies, tax breaks, extended maternity leave, and direct financial incentives.
Cultural factors may have played a role as well. Analysts note that 2025’s “Year of the Snake” is traditionally seen as less favorable for childbirth than 2024’s “Year of the Dragon.”
Still, experts remain skeptical about any meaningful rebound. High living costs, job insecurity among young people, and the unequal burden of childcare on women continue to discourage family formation.
“Children are ‘super consumers,’” said Yi Fuxian, a demographic expert at the University of Wisconsin–Madison. “With births at such low levels, China’s domestic demand is likely to stay weak, making the economy increasingly dependent on exports.”