A new statewide poll of the 2026 U.S. Senate races in Texas shows an increasingly competitive primary season on both sides of the political aisle. According to the latest Emerson College/Nexstar Media survey, State Representative James Talarico currently holds the lead in the Democratic primary, capturing 47% support from likely Democratic voters, while U.S. Representative Jasmine Crockett trails at 38%, with 15% undecided.
The poll suggests that Talarico’s campaign has built momentum among Hispanic and white Democratic voters, while Crockett continues to perform strongly with Black voters. Support among women voters is nearly even, indicating a closely fought contest.
On the Republican side, the race for the GOP nomination remains tight. Incumbent Senator John Cornyn and Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton are essentially neck and neck, with roughly 26–27% support each in the primary, and a significant share of voters still undecided. Neither candidate appears likely to secure a majority outright, raising the possibility of a runoff election if no one surpasses the 50% threshold required to win the nomination.
The results highlight the deep divisions and voter volatility in both parties as the 2026 election cycle approaches. The Democratic contest could shape which candidate is best positioned to challenge the eventual Republican nominee in November, while the GOP race’s outcome may hinge on whether establishment support for Cornyn or insurgent backing for Paxton carries more weight with primary voters.