Indian scientists have developed a new computer-based model predicting how bird flu (H5N1) could spread to humans, warning that even a small delay in response could allow an outbreak to spiral into a full-scale pandemic.
The study, conducted by researchers Philip Cherian and Gautam Menon of Ashoka University and published in BMC Public Health, uses advanced simulations to show how an initial spillover of the virus from birds to humans might evolve and how early interventions could prevent widespread transmission.
Bird flu has long been considered a serious global health threat. Since its emergence in the late 1990s, the World Health Organization has recorded nearly 1,000 human cases worldwide, with a fatality rate of about 48%. While human infections remain rare, recent outbreaks in birds and mammals—including dairy herds in the US and wildlife in India—have heightened concerns that the virus could adapt to spread more easily among people.
Using an open-source simulation platform originally built to model Covid-19, the Indian researchers recreated a realistic outbreak scenario in a poultry-dense village in Namakkal district, Tamil Nadu—one of India’s largest poultry hubs. The synthetic village model included households, farms, markets, schools and workplaces, allowing researchers to track how infections might move through a community.
The findings highlight how critical early detection is. According to the model, if authorities act when there are only two human cases—by isolating patients and quarantining households of close contacts—the outbreak can almost certainly be contained. However, once cases rise to around 10, the virus is likely to have spread beyond immediate contacts, making containment extremely difficult without drastic measures such as lockdowns.
The study also found that culling infected birds is effective only before the virus infects humans. After spillover occurs, timing becomes crucial. Delayed quarantines and isolation measures offer little protection once tertiary infections—spread through extended social networks—begin.
Targeted vaccination was shown to help raise the threshold for sustained transmission, but it does not significantly reduce the immediate risk within households. The researchers also noted a difficult trade-off: quarantines imposed too early can increase household transmission, while those imposed too late fail to slow the outbreak.
Experts caution that the model has limitations. It assumes efficient virus transmission and does not account for behavioural changes such as mask-wearing or reduced movement once an outbreak becomes visible. Virologist Dr Seema Lakdawala of Emory University said not all infected individuals spread influenza equally, noting that “only a subset of flu-positive individuals actually shed infectious virus into the air.”
Still, researchers stress that the threat is real. “The risk of an H5N1 pandemic in humans is genuine,” Professor Menon said, adding that improved surveillance and rapid public health action could prevent disaster.
Scientists say that if H5N1 does adapt to humans, it could cause disruption similar to the 2009 swine flu pandemic rather than Covid-19, as existing antivirals and stockpiled vaccines could offer early protection. However, they warn that the virus could mix with seasonal flu strains, leading to unpredictable and potentially severe epidemics.
The researchers hope their model can be used in real time during future outbreaks, giving health authorities crucial guidance in the earliest—and most decisive—hours of a potential pandemic.